EB-1A and NIW Approval Rates Have Dropped Sharply: What It Means for Your Green Card Petition

For years, the EB-1A extraordinary ability green card and the EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) were known as strong options for accomplished professionals, researchers, and entrepreneurs. Recent USCIS data tells a different story. Approval rates have fallen sharply, and petitions that might have been approved two years ago are now being denied. Here's what the numbers show, why it's happening, and how to build a petition that holds up.

What the Numbers Show

According to USCIS Form I-140 data, EB-1A approval rates dropped from roughly 67% in FY2025 to about 47% in the first quarter of FY2026, about 42% in the second quarter, and about 32% in the third quarter. NIW petitions have followed a similar path, falling from about 55% in FY2025 to roughly 43% in early FY2026.

In other words, in the most recent data, roughly two out of three EB-1A petitions are not being approved.

Why Approvals Are Falling

Several factors are driving the change:

• A surge in filings. NIW petitions roughly tripled between FY2022 and FY2025, and USCIS has responded with tougher review

• Stricter "final merits" review. Even when a petitioner meets the regulatory criteria, officers are taking a harder look at whether the overall record shows sustained acclaim

• Higher scrutiny of national interest. For NIW cases, officers are pushing back on broad claims of importance that aren't tied to concrete, measurable impact

• More skepticism toward evidence. Awards without clear competitive selection, industry-only media, and recommendation letters that praise without explaining are being discounted

What a Stronger Petition Looks Like Today

• Evidence benchmarked to your specific field, such as citation counts compared to peers rather than presented in isolation

• Independent expert letters that explain why your work matters, not just that it does

• Documentation showing how selective your awards, memberships, and review roles really are

• For NIW, a clear and specific explanation of your proposed endeavor and its national impact

• A strategy that considers filing EB-1A and NIW together, when the facts support both

If You Received an RFE or Denial

A Request for Evidence is an opportunity, not a verdict, and a well-built response can change the outcome. If your petition was denied, options may include a motion to reopen or reconsider, an appeal, or refiling with a stronger record. The right choice depends on why the petition was denied and how the evidence can be improved.

Whether you're preparing an EB-1A or NIW petition, responding to an RFE, or deciding what to do after a denial, CFR Law can evaluate your record against today's standards and build the strongest possible case.

This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration law changes frequently and outcomes depend on individual circumstances — consult a licensed attorney about your specific case.